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The World Bank (WB) has issued a stark warning that climate change could erode up to 12 percent of Zimbabwe’s gross domestic product (GDP) annually unless the country takes urgent and robust measures to address the growing threat.
This caution was highlighted in the latest Zimbabwe economic update report, launched Friday in Harare, which called for enhanced resilience against climate-related shocks, particularly in the agricultural sector.
Agriculture is a cornerstone of Zimbabwe’s economy, contributing between 11 and 14 percent of GDP and employing approximately 70 percent of the population. It also supplies about 60 percent of the raw materials used by the country’s industries. However, the sector’s heavy reliance on rainfed systems and maize production makes it highly vulnerable to the increasingly severe impacts of climate change.
The 2023/2024 farming season underscored this vulnerability, as Zimbabwe faced a devastating El Niño-induced drought. Maize yields plummeted by 60 percent compared to the five-year average, exacerbating food insecurity and economic hardship. The drought, characterized by significantly reduced rainfall and high temperatures, has disrupted livelihoods and threatened the government’s ambitious target of boosting agricultural output to $12.5 billion by 2025.
“Climate shocks disrupt GDP, trade balances, and fiscal stability. The 2023/2024 El Niño-induced drought alone caused approximately $363 million in damage losses,” the World Bank report stated. This cycle of drought and recovery not only undermines sustainable development but also deepens poverty levels, making it imperative to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector.
Easther Chigumira, a World Bank senior agriculture specialist and co-author of the report, emphasized the need for a dual approach to tackle the challenges posed by climate change. “To strengthen Zimbabwe’s resilience to weather shocks and climate change, substantial investment in climate adaptation and the enhancement of anticipatory actions are essential,” she said.
The report, titled “Improving Resilience to Weather Shocks and Climate Change,” outlines opportunities for Zimbabwe to bolster its resilience and sustain economic growth. Key recommendations include investing in climate-smart agriculture, improving irrigation infrastructure, and promoting crop diversification to reduce reliance on maize. Additionally, the report highlights the importance of early warning systems and disaster preparedness to mitigate the impact of future climate shocks.
The World Bank’s findings underscore the urgent need for Zimbabwe to prioritize climate adaptation and resilience-building measures. As the country grapples with the dual challenges of economic recovery and climate change, proactive strategies will be critical to safeguarding livelihoods, ensuring food security, and achieving long-term sustainable development.
The report serves as a call to action for policymakers, development partners, and stakeholders to collaborate in addressing the pressing issue of climate change. By investing in resilience and adaptation, Zimbabwe can not only mitigate the economic losses caused by climate shocks but also unlock new opportunities for growth and prosperity in a changing climate.
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