Ghana at risk of not passing IMF fourth review in April

Chief Executive of Delax Finance Joe Jackson and Senior country Partner of PWC Ghana Vish Ashiagbor are warning that Ghana could miss out on passing the fourth IMF programme review. 

This Follows revelations by Finance Minister, Dr. Ato Forson that Ghana missed out on most of the key indicators under the IMF programme ending December 2024. 

These experts argued that if Ghana does not get a waiver with any of the targets, from the IMF, during the review, then there is the likelihood that Ghana will not pass the 4th IMF programme review due in April 2025. 

Chief Executive of Delax Finance Joe Jackson and Senior country Partner of PWC Ghana Vish Ashiagbor disclosed this on PM EXPRESS BUSINESS EDITION with host George Wiafe on 14th March 2025. 

Background 

Finance Minister, Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, in presenting the 2025 Budget to parliament revealed that Ghana has likely missed the   key performance indicators required for the upcoming fourth review by the IMF, which is scheduled for April 2025.

Perhaps more concerning is his revelation that “all structural benchmarks due by end-December 2024 are likely missed, suggesting a comprehensive failure to meet reform commitments”

“End of year inflation target was missed as the 23.8 per cent recorded in December 2024 far exceeded the budget target of 15 per cent and the IMF central target of 18 per cent and IMF central Target of 5.8 percentage points ” The Minister added 

This Dr. Ato Forson adds that , it has triggered  discussion with the IMF under the Monetary Policy Consultation cluse.  

The Minister noted that ,  The primary balance—considered the key fiscal anchor of the IMF programme—deteriorated from a deficit of 0.2 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023 to a deficit of 3.9 per cent in 2024. 

This represents a massive slippage of 4.4 percentage points from the targeted surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP, undermining confidence in Ghana’s fiscal management capabilities at a critical juncture.

“All structural Benchmarks due by end of December are likely missed” The finance minister revealed. 

Implications 

Speaking on PM EXPRESS, Mr Vish Ashiagbormaintained that, if the situation is not managed well, it could have  some serious impact on the Ghana cedi, depending on how the development is handled. 

“We already understand that, investors have started responding negatively to the not so good fiscal data ending 2024” The Senior Country Partner at the PWC Ghana added 

The development should see government move quickly to deal with these concerns and some innovative ways to control the situation, he added 

The Chief Executive of Finance Group Delax, argued that the development should put  freshpressure on on Government to kick start talks for an IMF programme extension. 

It is clear that we cannot meet these key targets and the necessary steps should be taken now, when it comes to starting the process for.