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0 Fitch Solutions has revised its end-of-year forecast of the cedi-to-dollar rate at GH¢13.0, from its previous projection of GH¢15.5 to one American greenback.
It is also forecasting a 12.9% appreciation against the US dollar in 2025.
According to the UK-based firm, its assumption is based on the local currency appreciating by 16% between late April 2025 and the middle of May 2025. This is on the back of higher gold prices.
“The cedi has appreciated by 16% between late April and the middle of May (time of writing) on the back of higher gold prices, resulting in our Country Risk team revising down their end-2025 forecast for the Ghanaian cedi to GH¢13.0/US dollar, from our previous projection of GH¢15.5/US dollar. We now forecast that the currency will strengthen by 12.9% over 2025, from GH¢14.7/US dollar at the end of 2024.
It continued that the stronger cedi will create room for the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to pivot back to monetary easing.
“As Ghana is a net importer of key consumer goods—including fuel, cereals, pharmaceuticals, and plastics—a stronger exchange rate will have a disinflationary effect. Although the BoG delivered a surprise 100 basis-point rate hike in March[2025], bringing the policy rate to 28.00%, easing inflationary pressures—driven by exchange rate gains—should provide scope for a more accommodative stance in the second half of the year”.
“We therefore expect the BoG to cut the policy rate by a cumulative 200 basis points in H2 [second-half] 2025, ending the year at 26.00%.
According to the UK-based firm, these factors will serve to increase purchasing power for households and be the key drivers of faster spending growth.
Meanwhile, the cedi is going for about
