Advisory | Ghana’s credit ratings upgrade: A vote of confidence, but not a passport to borrow

A JoyNews Research Advisory Note | Dispatch 1

Ghana is back on the radar of global investors. For the first time since defaulting on its debt in 2022, all three major credit rating agencies—Moody’s, S&P, and now Fitch—have revised the country’s ratings upward. Fitch’s latest move, lifting Ghana from ‘Restricted Default’ to B- with a Stable Outlook, signals renewed optimism about the country’s economic path.

But let’s be clear: this is not a free pass to go back to the Eurobond market. If anything, it’s a flashing yellow light: proceed with extreme caution.

The upgrade affirms Ghana’s progress since its 2022–2023 debt crisis when ballooning deficits, crippling interest payments, and unsustainable borrowing culminated in a historic default and painful debt restructuring under both the Domestic and External Debt Exchange Programme. Inflation has dropped significantly, international reserves have rebounded to over $10 billion, and the cedi has appreciated more than 40% year-to-date. Fitch’s confidence stems from these improved fundamentals and tighter fiscal discipline.

However, according to Isaac Kofi Agyei, Lead Analyst at JoyNews Research, the upgrade is a signal of progress, not a green light to re-enter global capital markets. “Ghana’s macroeconomic gains remain fragile and unconsolidated,” he cautions.

“A premature return to Eurobond issuance could backfire and erode the hard-won gains made so far.” Instead, Agyei recommends that Ghana wait until at least 2027 when debt service obligations resume in full and reforms are more deeply entrenched.

This view is echoed by Caleb Wuninti Ziblim, who argues for a stepwise return, starting with a re-engagement in the domestic bond market.

“The government should test investor confidence locally first. If that proves successful, it can consider international borrowing in the next 12 to 24 months,” he suggests.

Ziblim also warns that Eurobond rates could remain prohibitively high in the short term, given lingering investor skepticism and Ghana’s still-recovering fiscal credibility.

The domestic market may offer a better-proving ground. According to Anthony Manu, the government is already moving to make Treasury bills less attractive to investors by pushing rates down and rejecting overpriced bids.

“This is an effort to restore confidence and deepen the local debt market,” he explains. However, Manu stresses that this effort must be matched with transparency, a credible borrowing plan, and sustained fiscal discipline to avoid a repeat of the 2022 collapse.

Indeed, trust remains fragile. Many local investors are still reeling from the DDEP’s impact. “Investor sentiment is slowly improving,” notes Jason Dei, “but the trauma of bond haircuts hasn’t faded. Ghana needs to consolidate these fragile gains before seeking fresh funding on expensive external markets.” Dei recommends a phased return that starts with solidifying domestic gains throughout 2025, followed by a cautious test of the Eurobond market by late 2026 if macroeconomic stability holds.

Liquidity pressures remain a key vulnerability. As Maxwell Kwasi Aklorbortu points out, interest payments are consuming over a quarter of government revenue, and DDEP coupon payments are set to rise to 9.1% in 2025. “Ghana can’t afford another fiscal misstep,” he warns. “The government must aggressively manage to spend and broaden its tax base to protect capital investment and social protection programmes.”

The Road Ahead: Patience, Prudence, and Policy Credibility

While Ghana’s improved credit ratings reflect commendable progress, all five JoyNews Research analysts agree that this should not trigger hasty external borrowing. Instead, the government must focus on rebuilding the domestic bond market, meeting IMF programme benchmarks, and maintaining a credible, transparent fiscal path.

If these steps are followed, a return to the Eurobond market sometime between late 2026 and 2027 may be feasible—under better terms, with lower refinancing risk and restored investor confidence. Until then, Ghana should continue leveraging alternative financing tools such as the Gold for Oil and Gold-backed Bond (GOLDBOD) initiatives, remittance flows, and robust cocoa exports to meet short-to-medium-term financing needs.

Ultimately, the credit upgrade is not a destination—it’s a checkpoint. Ghana has regained some credibility, but must now earn long-term investor trust through consistent performance, not just promises. As the analysts agree: caution, not celebration, must guide Ghana’s next steps.

Find all five opinions below:

Isaac Kofi Agyei | Lead Data & Research Analyst, JoyNews Research

Ghana’s recent credit rating upgrade from “Restricted Default” to B- with a stable outlook by Fitch marks a significant milestone in its economic recovery journey. It sends a strong signal of improving confidence in the country’s fiscal management and reform agenda. However, despite this positive momentum, the path back to the international capital markets may not be as green-lit as it appears.

After more than three years of being shut out of the Eurobond market, it is crucial for Ghana to approach its return with caution. While macroeconomic indicators suggest the country is on a positive trajectory, many of the gains remain fragile and unconsolidated.

The fiscal space created by the debt moratorium and significant haircuts under the debt rework has offered Ghana a temporary reprieve. But the real test lies ahead. When bilateral debt repayments resume in full after the moratorium ends in 2026, Ghana must demonstrate that it can sustain its economic momentum without triggering another crisis.

The IMF’s most recent assessment suggests that 2027, a year after the current programme concludes, could be the earliest realistic window for Ghana to tap into the Eurobond market. This timeline allows room to fully consolidate reforms and build investor confidence.

Moreover, with government yet to resume the issuance of local currency bonds, any premature move to the international market may backfire. Investors will be closely watching Ghana’s ability to mobilize domestic resources and sustain revenue performance before committing to long-term lending.

Instead of rushing, Ghana must continue to leverage alternative financing channels—including the GOLDBOD initiative, improved remittance inflows, strong cocoa revenues, and stabilized reserves—to support its short- to medium-term financing needs.

In summary, while the credit upgrade is a positive development, Ghana’s best strategy is to wait until at least 2027 before considering Eurobond issuance. By then, the country would have had time to consolidate reforms, normalize domestic financing operations, and reinforce investor confidence—ensuring a stronger, more sustainable return to the capital markets.

Anthony Manu | Data & Research Analyst, JoyNews Research

Ghana’s recent credit rating upgrade by Fitch, from Restricted Default (RD) to B- with a Stable Outlook represents a significant step forward in the country’s economic recovery. Similar upgrades by Moody’s and S&P further affirms the progress being made. These revisions reflect improving macroeconomic fundamentals, tighter fiscal management, and renewed investor confidence in reforms under the IMF-supported programme. However, while the upgrades are encouraging, they should not be misconstrued as a green light for re-entry into the international capital markets, especially the Eurobond space.

The upgrade, announced in June 2025, is underpinned by clear gains. Inflation has declined from 54.1% in December 2022 to 18.4% in May 2025. Gross international reserves have increased by more than 70%, reaching $10.67 billion, providing 4.7 months of import cover. The cedi has rebounded impressively, appreciating over 40% year-to-date. Public debt has dropped from 77.5% of GDP to 55%, and business confidence has surged, with the index rising from 75.7 in 2022 to 102.2 this year.

These are not cosmetic wins. They are the result of tough structural reforms—debt restructuring, fiscal tightening, and monetary discipline—painful, but necessary. With the domestic bond market nearly crippled by the 2022–2023 Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP), the Treasury bill market became Ghana’s emergency lifeline. Now, with investor appetite slowly returning, government is deliberately rejecting overpriced bids to drive rates down and restore market confidence.

Yet, despite these achievements, the question remains: is Ghana ready to re-enter the international capital market? The answer is no! Ghana is ready to rebuild its presence in the domestic bond market, where it can manage risk, signal policy credibility, and lengthen its debt profile. But returning to the Eurobond market now would be premature and dangerous.

The Eurobond market presents a different set of risks. Memories of the 2022–2023 default are still fresh, and despite macroeconomic gains, global investors continue to view Ghana’s sovereign risk as high. A premature return would come at a cost, potentially double-digit interest rates that could unravel the very stability the country has worked hard to rebuild.

The IMF shares this caution. Its projections show no Eurobond issuance before 2027, with the earliest expected re-engagement with commercial and bilateral creditors not until 2026. That message is clear: while the path is improving, confidence from international lenders is not yet strong enough to justify external borrowing.

A B- rating is still below investment grade. It signals progress, but also risk. Ghana’s recovery is still in its early stages: encouraging, but fragile. The focus now must be on deepening domestic reforms, strengthening the local bond market, and building a sustained track record of fiscal discipline. The Eurobond market will only welcome Ghana back when the story is not just about reform, but consistency.

In short, the Fitch upgrade is not a green light for re-entry into global markets. It’s a nod of approval for the direction taken, not the final destination reached. Ghana must continue to consolidate its gains, rebuild trust methodically, and resist the temptation of rushing back into a market that could punish it with high costs. Before we step back onto the global stage, we must first finish the work at home.

Caleb Wununti Ziblim | Data & Research Analyst, JoyNews Research

Three years after Ghana’s default, all three major credit rating agencies have now lifted their ratings — Moody’s in October 2024, S&P in May 2025, and now Fitch. The triple upgrade has sparked a question: is Ghana ready to borrow again?

Short answer: Not just yet — at least not externally. The government should first reenter the local bond market gradually. If that proves successful, a return to the international market could follow in a year or two.

Global investors remain cautious. If Ghana were to issue Eurobonds now, it would likely face steep interest rates that are significantly above historical averages. Ghana’s fiscal credibility is still being rebuilt. Foreign creditors want to see sustained discipline, predictable policy, and proof that repayments won’t be delayed or restructured again. A new NDC administration, barely six months into the job, hasn’t yet had time to prove that.

The domestic bond market, however, looks more promising.

The Finance Ministry has quietly made Treasury bills less attractive by driving rates down from over 25% to around 14%, and even rejecting bids despite undersubscribed auctions. That’s left excess liquidity in search of better returns.

With the cedi remarkably stable and gold no longer offering speculative gains from currency depreciation, attention is shifting to medium-term bonds.

This is an opening. The government should test the waters with short to medium-term instruments (2-to-3-year maturities), moderately priced.

Still, the risks are real. Banks are recovering from losses in the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme. Pension funds remain cautious. Insurance firms and asset managers are wary of locking into longer-term bonds, fearing potential losses if interest rates shift.

To succeed, the government must strike the right balance by offering yields high enough to attract investors without undermining future fiscal space. Just as crucial is policy clarity: a credible borrowing plan, adherence to the revised Medium-Term Debt Strategy, and clear signals on fiscal targets.

If that foundation holds and Ghana sticks to its restructured debt obligations, external reentry could follow in 12 to 24 months. This would not only offer a cheaper way to finance the budget and attract foreign exchange to support the cedi, but also unlock funding for much-needed infrastructure.

But it must be approached strategically.

Ghana cannot afford another 2022! Unsustainable debt and fiscal opacity crushed confidence and hurt livelihoods. To avoid repeating that mistake, the government must slowly ease off short-term T-bill reliance, show fiscal restraint, and rebuild trust with both local and foreign investors.

Jason Dei | Data & Research Analyst, JoyNews Research

Ghana’s credit rating has been upgraded from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default) to ‘B-’ with a stable outlook, a significant turnaround from the 2022–2023 DDEP era. This follows similar actions by Moody’s (CAA2) and S&P (CCC+), signalling a coordinated uptick in investor sentiment toward Ghana’s economy.

This marks the first time since the domestic debt restructuring began that all three major rating agencies have revised Ghana’s outlook positively. President Mahama’s inaugural pledge that “Ghana is open for business” appears to be materializing under tighter macro management.

This upgrade signals renewed confidence in Ghana’s fiscal trajectory, largely influenced by progress in the ongoing debt restructuring and steady engagement with the IMF. It also suggests that global credit watchers now acknowledge the government’s improved macroeconomic management, especially in the wake of the DDEP’s painful restructuring process. Nevertheless, while the upgrade appears promising on paper, it should not overshadow the reality that many local investors are still recovering from severe losses. The trauma of the bond haircut era has not yet faded, and investor trust—both domestic and foreign—remains fragile.

Moreover, the BoG’s recent monetary posture reinforces the need for caution. The reduction in T-bill rates from 30% in January 2025 to about 14% reflects a deliberate effort to rein in borrowing and reduce fiscal pressure. At the same time, the rejection of recent Treasury bill bids suggests that government is prioritizing stability over quick fixes. This aligns with the broader economic posture of cautious optimism. Therefore, while the rating upgrade creates an opening, it also raises the stakes—any misstep in market timing or fiscal management could easily unravel the credibility Ghana is slowly regaining.

In light of the above, a gradual approach to re-entering international capital markets is highly advisable. Rather than rushing to issue Eurobonds, government should first rebuild confidence locally through well-structured bond auctions and transparent debt communication. The domestic bond market can serve as a proving ground to test investor appetite and signal discipline to international markets. In this transitional phase, Ghana should stay focused on meeting IMF program benchmarks and ensuring that debt remains on a sustainable path.

Additionally, the current momentum should be used to consolidate gains rather than stretch fiscal space. A full re-entry into the international capital market should be considered in 2026, only after the debt restructuring is fully completed and the economy shows resilience through multiple quarters. This phased strategy will reduce refinancing risk and prevent the economy from being exposed to sudden shocks or predatory borrowing terms. Ultimately, credibility must be earned, not assumed — and this rating upgrade is only the beginning.

Fitch’s upgrade is a strong vote of confidence and Ghana must now match investor optimism with discipline. A gradual, risk-conscious return to markets — guided by domestic stability and credible reforms — is the safest path forward. To consolidate gains throughout 2025, deepen domestic investor confidence, and only consider a full re-entry into the capital markets in 2026, after the debt restructuring is fully completed and macroeconomic stability is firmly anchored.

Maxwell Kwasi Aklorbortu | Data & Research Analyst, JoyNews Research

Fitch’s upgrade to ‘B-’ is a clear signal that Ghana is regaining market confidence. But investors will be watching one thing closely—liquidity. With interest payments consuming over a quarter of revenue and the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) coupons jumping to 9.1% in 2025, Ghana cannot afford to slip on fiscal discipline. The government must stay aggressive on expenditure control and broaden its revenue base to free up space for capital investment and social spending.

The immediate goal should be to reopen the domestic bond market by the first quarter of 2026, backed by a credible 2025 mid-year budget review. If inflation drops and investor sentiment improves just as Fitch expects then Ghana could test international markets cautiously by late 2026 or early 2027, likely through a partial Eurobond issuance or a diaspora-targeted instrument. The key is not to rush, but to build trust with every step.